The Kenyan coffee harvest is progressing, and we’ve cupped promising preshipment samples from regions like Kiambu, Kirinyaga and Nyeri! We’ve outlined the latest updates, insights into this year’s crop quality, market dynamics, and tips for navigating the buying process for you.
Early Harvest and Reduced Volumes
This year, the harvest moved fast, starting earlier than usual and already approaching the finish line. We’ve been cupping since the first weeks of the auction, which marks the start of the harvest season, and the cup quality has been strong from early January onwards, and the best coffees are already in circulation.
The total volume of available coffee is currently estimated to be down by roughly 10-20 percent, which is consistent with typical cyclical fluctuations in Kenya. Specialty volumes are not so affected by this.
Grade-wise, AA volumes are strong with good quality. PB is extremely limited, sometimes fewer than five bags per large outturn, and AB availability varies by cooperative, but overall access is better than early field reports suggested. Price differences between grades are narrow, making it more effective to focus on high-performing AA coffees.
We observe internal prices that remain elevated due to strong auction performance. Producers, especially in Nyeri and Central Kenya, are disciplined sellers, some are holding coffee for the auction rather than offering discounts for direct sales.
With reduced volume and steady demand, high-quality coffee is selling fast, and waiting to buy could mean missing out. Internally, we’re seeing good-quality lots available through mid-April, but from March onwards, the outturn will be lower.
First expected Shipments and Availability
For SPOT we have 8-9 containers confirmed and 3 afloat, with arrivals expected in March. For larger volumes, we will have good availability of AA/AB lots from Ruthaka in Nyeri, Iyego in Murang’a and Inoi in Kirinyaga with prices ranging from 11.20-12.76 USD/kg on FOB terms.
For larger volumes, we have decided to focus on specific cooperatives, where we can profile outturns, to maintain quality and expectations, while creating impactful blends. Since all cooperative coffees are blends of local cherry anyway, we thought it is best to work at cooperative level (rather than factory level) to create a stable offering of classic profiles. Here we select and blend both AA and AB outturns from the cooperatives that meet the flavour profiles expected from the area. For classic Nyeri, we are working with Ruthaka, to find the classic, blackcurrant leaf and jammy profile. For a sweeter option, Iyego in Murang’a often has a redcurrant and caramel profile. While Inoi in Kirinyaga, is a cooperative we are excited about, not only delivering the classic Kirinyaga profiles but also very impactful on the ground, and highly transparent with members on pricing.
Because the harvest peaked earlier than usual, high-quality lots are already available. While the season may extend slightly longer than first anticipated, availability is still front-loaded, and the best selections are moving quickly.
Josh’s tips on how to plan your Coffees
“This year’s coffees are performing very well and consistent in the cup. AA lots make up a large part of our offer list thanks to their reliability and consistently strong cup quality. If you’re not tied to a specific station or name, this is a great year to explore, consider Mwirua coffees from Kirinyaga. If you liked Ndimi last year, consider other Inoi factories."
"When purchasing multiple lots to cover a year, know that the profiles will change and develop, don’t be afraid to commit to coffees that are “tight” or fresh. Be confident they will open and consider this when thinking about the order of release. For larger volumes, our cooperative lots constructed by blending AA and AB blends provide a more dependable and competitive solution than single-factory lots, while maintaining traceability and your ability to have an impact.”
